The Clearing
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (26 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 35
Defender wins (German): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1194 | 997 | 76% | 2025-02-11 | | Won |
| 997 | 960 | 55% | 2025-02-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2025-01-15 | | Won |
| 938 | 1028 | 37% | 2024-11-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1069 | 40% | 2024-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1095 | 37% | 2024-03-22 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1028 | 42% | 2024-03-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2023-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1194 | 1000 | 75% | 2022-09-04 | | Won |
| 718 | 1169 | 7% | 2022-08-16 | | Lost |
| 1162 | 986 | 73% | 2022-01-09 | | Won |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2021-08-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1164 | 28% | 2020-12-12 | | Lost |
| 999 | 793 | 77% | 2020-05-02 | | Won |
| 916 | 1141 | 21% | 2019-10-23 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1066 | 38% | 2019-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1065 | 41% | 2019-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2018-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 882 | 81% | 2017-10-11 | | Won |
| 966 | 936 | 54% | 2016-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2014-10-06 | | Won |
| 957 | 1047 | 37% | 2014-01-11 | | Lost |
| 1068 | 1082 | 48% | 2013-09-27 | | Won |
| 910 | 940 | 46% | 2013-06-20 | | Won |
| 964 | 1199 | 21% | | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1199 | 24% | | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1007.2 vs 1033.6 has a 46.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).