Semper Paratus
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (21 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 36
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 1081 | 27% | 2025-11-02 | Won |
| 1009 | 1056 | 43% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 973 | 868 | 65% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 1021 | 961 | 59% | 2022-11-12 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1062 | 45% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2022-07-14 | Won |
| 1009 | 1057 | 43% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1176 | 48% | 2020-12-20 | Lost |
| 964 | 1076 | 34% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 967 | 924 | 56% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 939 | 971 | 45% | 2017-01-04 | Won |
| 1207 | 1028 | 74% | 2016-01-18 | Won |
| 1045 | 918 | 68% | 2013-11-22 | Won |
| 974 | 973 | 50% | 2013-11-16 | Lost |
| 972 | 1108 | 31% | 2013-08-09 | Won |
| 1098 | 1020 | 61% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1020 | 1098 | 39% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1027 | 1207 | 26% | 2013-03-22 | Won |
| 1125 | 973 | 71% | 2013-03-07 | Won |
| 889 | 804 | 62% | 2013-02-04 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1021.2 vs 1021.2 has a 50.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).