Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 61 (17 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 32
Defender wins (American): 29
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 905 | 938 | 45% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 958 | 1058 | 36% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1040 | 46% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1053 | 54% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 1008 | 1002 | 51% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1049 | 71% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 964 | 957 | 51% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1010 | 841 | 73% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1079 | 909 | 73% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1108 | 913 | 75% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 830 | 1223 | 9% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1136 | 1117 | 53% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 932 | 1039 | 35% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1040 | 967 | 60% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1039 | 1114 | 39% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1098 | 41% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1029.9 vs 1031.8 has a 49.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).