Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (23 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 36
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1012 | 939 | 60% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 1006 | 991 | 52% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 984 | 1011 | 46% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1041 | 47% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1055 | 58% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 1056 | 975 | 61% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1135 | 930 | 76% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 962 | 975 | 48% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1177 | 1227 | 43% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1053 | 909 | 70% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1115 | 953 | 72% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1091 | 879 | 77% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 787 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 755 | 982 | 21% | 2016-09-13 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1250 | 33% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1250 | 1007 | 80% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1250 | 1114 | 69% | 2015-10-28 | Won |
| 1089 | 1122 | 45% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1100 | 27% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1039 | 1049 | 49% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1100 | 1125 | 46% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1101 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1054.3 vs 1051.6 has a 50.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).