Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 71 (25 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 36
Defender wins (American): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1177 | 30% | 2026-07-04 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1120 | 43% | 2026-03-16 | Lost |
| 959 | 1011 | 43% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1021 | 1018 | 50% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1041 | 51% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1055 | 47% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1132 | 966 | 72% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 939 | 928 | 52% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1079 | 1227 | 30% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1029 | 897 | 68% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1134 | 961 | 73% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1152 | 848 | 85% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 698 | 989 | 16% | 2016-09-13 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1263 | 27% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1263 | 1108 | 71% | 2015-10-28 | Won |
| 1126 | 1121 | 51% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1146 | 22% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1040 | 1011 | 54% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1146 | 1133 | 52% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1101 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1052.3 vs 1058.2 has a 49.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).