Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 98 (21 on the archive and 77 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 42
Defender wins (Japanese): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1095 | 1051 | 56% | 2025-05-13 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1085 | 63% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1095 | 1061 | 55% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1096 | 72% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1066 | 62% | 2021-05-05 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1151 | 30% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1202 | 989 | 77% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1111 | 50% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1075 | 1160 | 38% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 973 | 1153 | 26% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 870 | 1193 | 13% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1153 | 46% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1153 | 44% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1060 | 977 | 62% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 976 | 1057 | 39% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 925 | 55% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1144 | 44% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1066 | 55% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1059 | 863 | 76% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1078.7 vs 1074.1 has a 50.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).