Tropic Lightning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 100 (21 on the archive and 79 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 43
Defender wins (Japanese): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 1038 | 50% | 2025-05-13 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1042 | 72% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1205 | 1011 | 75% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-03-10 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1061 | 72% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1047 | 63% | 2021-05-05 | Lost |
| 975 | 1123 | 30% | 2020-12-28 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1037 | 56% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1120 | 48% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 1157 | 40% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 977 | 1126 | 30% | 2017-11-16 | Lost |
| 992 | 1099 | 35% | 2017-09-06 | Lost |
| 951 | 1126 | 27% | 2016-11-05 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1126 | 51% | 2014-04-07 | Won |
| 1146 | 982 | 72% | 2013-12-14 | Won |
| 987 | 1059 | 40% | 2013-07-16 | Lost |
| 963 | 1031 | 40% | 2013-06-14 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1182 | 41% | 2013-01-19 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1070 | 58% | 2012-12-23 | Lost |
| 1077 | 863 | 77% | 2012-11-17 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1079.5 vs 1066.8 has a 51.82% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).