Makela's End
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (14 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Nationalist): 15
Defender wins (Republican): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 877 | 1191 | 14% | 2023-09-14 | Won |
| 1177 | 1159 | 53% | 2022-06-28 | Lost |
| 1177 | 947 | 79% | 2022-03-28 | Lost |
| 949 | 1114 | 28% | 2018-11-30 | Lost |
| 1057 | 982 | 61% | 2016-03-24 | Won |
| 1052 | 1000 | 57% | 2016-03-23 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1191 | 30% | 2015-05-20 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1052 | 54% | 2015-03-21 | Lost |
| 1199 | 1060 | 69% | 2013-10-10 | Won |
| 832 | 950 | 34% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1177 | 947 | 79% | 2013-03-28 | Lost |
| 882 | 1152 | 17% | 2012-11-17 | Lost |
| 1118 | 920 | 76% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1097 | 950 | 70% | 2012-05-16 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1050.9 vs 1043.9 has a 51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).