The Heat is On
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (16 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 24
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1187 | 1004 | 74% | 2025-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2025-01-11 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1054 | 55% | 2024-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2023-08-05 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1218 | 37% | 2020-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1102 | 1218 | 34% | 2020-05-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2017-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2014-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1146 | 30% | 2013-09-07 | | Lost |
| 1146 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-09-01 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1120 | 36% | 2012-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2012-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2012-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2012-04-08 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1031 | 56% | 2012-03-02 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1205 | 30% | 2012-02-07 | | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1086.3 vs 1064.9 has a 53.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).