A Winter Melee
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (19 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 28
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2023-04-23 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 969 | 72% | 2022-04-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2020-06-20 | | Won |
| 981 | 1215 | 21% | 2018-07-20 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-07-20 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1035 | 63% | 2018-04-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2017-09-10 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 999 | 68% | 2016-06-25 | | Won |
| 1283 | 1000 | 84% | 2016-03-17 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2015-11-30 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2014-11-29 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1127 | 37% | 2013-06-20 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2013-04-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1170 | 27% | 2013-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2011-09-10 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2009-08-04 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1208 | 26% | 2009-04-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 1990-08-22 | | Tied |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1054.7 vs 1058.7 has a 49.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).