Fitzgerald's Fire
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (16 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 28
Defender wins (American): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1143 | 1159 | 48% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 952 | 1200 | 19% | 2021-09-22 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1135 | 62% | 2020-10-22 | Lost |
| 964 | 1023 | 42% | 2016-08-03 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2016-06-28 | Lost |
| 987 | 853 | 68% | 2016-03-13 | Lost |
| 987 | 853 | 68% | 2016-03-13 | Lost |
| 951 | 1054 | 36% | 2014-01-13 | Won |
| 1060 | 985 | 61% | 2011-08-20 | Won |
| 920 | 942 | 47% | 2011-08-12 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1159 | 51% | 2011-01-20 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1015 | 56% | 2011-01-09 | Won |
| 1094 | 1190 | 37% | 2009-07-05 | Lost |
| 988 | 1108 | 33% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 916 | 1006 | 37% | 2008-09-27 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1036 | 66% | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1045.6 vs 1055.6 has a 48.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).