Fitzgerald's Fire
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (16 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (American): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 1137 | 53% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 988 | 1223 | 21% | 2021-09-22 | Lost |
| 1221 | 1136 | 62% | 2020-10-22 | Lost |
| 964 | 1021 | 42% | 2016-08-03 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2016-06-28 | Lost |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-03-13 | Lost |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-03-13 | Lost |
| 951 | 1054 | 36% | 2014-01-13 | Won |
| 1095 | 986 | 65% | 2011-08-20 | Won |
| 920 | 942 | 47% | 2011-08-12 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1112 | 55% | 2011-01-20 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1010 | 57% | 2011-01-09 | Won |
| 1092 | 1146 | 42% | 2009-07-05 | Lost |
| 988 | 1093 | 35% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 959 | 1001 | 44% | 2008-09-27 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1079 | 61% | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1049.9 vs 1047.2 has a 50.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).