Going to New York!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38
Attacker wins (Italian): 14
Defender wins (American): 20
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (Italian): 2
Defender wins (American): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1080 | 1080 | 50% | 2025-04-06 | Won |
| 1266 | 974 | 84% | 2025-02-14 | Won |
| 974 | 1266 | 16% | 2025-02-05 | Lost |
| 1266 | 974 | 84% | 2025-02-01 | Won |
| 974 | 1006 | 45% | 2024-12-01 | Lost |
| 1173 | 917 | 81% | 2022-08-06 | Won |
| 986 | 969 | 52% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1142 | 50% | 2022-04-20 | Lost |
| 974 | 877 | 64% | 2021-11-10 | Tied |
| 1002 | 898 | 65% | 2021-07-04 | Lost |
| 974 | 1113 | 31% | 2021-06-03 | Lost |
| 845 | 1004 | 29% | 2021-05-31 | Lost |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-05-25 | Won |
| 945 | 925 | 53% | 2021-05-18 | Won |
| 964 | 982 | 47% | 2021-05-14 | Won |
| 1072 | 969 | 64% | 2021-05-12 | Lost |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 982 | 55% | 2021-05-04 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1115 | 54% | 2020-12-02 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1051 | 974 | 61% | 2020-06-13 | Won |
| 1431 | 945 | 94% | 2020-04-08 | Won |
| 1053 | 941 | 66% | 2020-03-30 | Lost |
| 1053 | 941 | 66% | 2020-03-30 | Lost |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 974 | 1214 | 20% | 2019-06-20 | Lost |
| 1025 | 974 | 57% | 2017-12-27 | Won |
| 899 | 877 | 53% | 2016-04-20 | Won |
| 877 | 899 | 47% | 2016-04-17 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2015-11-20 | Lost |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2015-11-20 | Lost |
| 1096 | 972 | 67% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-08-24 | Lost |
| 1038 | 996 | 56% | 2013-01-24 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1023 | 52% | 2010-12-22 | Lost |
| 1003 | 886 | 66% | 2010-02-20 | Lost |
| 871 | 1002 | 32% | 2008-09-16 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1030.9 vs 1000.3 has a 54.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).