The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (16 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (Polish): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 930 | 60% | 2022-10-16 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1078 | 50% | 2022-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2021-07-27 | | Lost |
| 1069 | 1109 | 44% | 2018-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 947 | 86% | 2018-02-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2016-11-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2016-07-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2015-06-25 | | Lost |
| 920 | 985 | 41% | 2013-01-27 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 1019 | 50% | 2012-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 972 | 54% | 2011-12-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2011-10-03 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1253 | 38% | 2009-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1047 | 1175 | 32% | 2009-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2008-10-01 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1031 | 51% | 2008-09-09 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1037.1 vs 1078.3 has a 44.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).