The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (14 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1204 | 1057 | 70% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1174 | 40% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 945 | 1117 | 27% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 1204 | 24% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 931 | 986 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1020 | 52% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 801 | 879 | 39% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1006 | 1078 | 40% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1244 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1213 | 27% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1188 | 1003 | 74% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1035 | 1058 | 47% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1022.9 vs 1074.2 has a 42.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).