The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (16 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (Polish): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 928 | 939 | 48% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1076 | 1078 | 50% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1119 | 41% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1263 | 947 | 86% | 2018-02-25 | Won |
| 1112 | 1143 | 46% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1328 | 1344 | 48% | 2016-07-09 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 920 | 985 | 41% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1019 | 49% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 802 | 965 | 28% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1007 | 1146 | 31% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1253 | 38% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1152 | 37% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1187 | 1094 | 63% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1035 | 1031 | 51% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1059.5 vs 1085.9 has a 46.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).