A Dangerous Possibility
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (13 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 24
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2025-03-08 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2018-04-24 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2016-03-16 | Won |
| 937 | 1146 | 23% | 2015-01-12 | Won |
| 1070 | 929 | 69% | 2013-03-23 | Won |
| 870 | 1101 | 21% | 2011-04-25 | Won |
| 1084 | 1010 | 60% | 2009-02-07 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1027 | 50% | 2009-01-13 | Lost |
| 1184 | 1141 | 56% | 2008-10-09 | Won |
| 1060 | 1160 | 36% | 2008-05-15 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1102 | 37% | 2008-02-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 1179 | 25% | 2008-02-02 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1077 | 62% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1050.8 vs 1087.8 has a 44.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).