Marders not Martyrs
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 224 (55 on the archive and 169 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 107
Defender wins (German): 116
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1102 | 975 | 68% | 2026-06-18 | | Won |
| 1126 | 959 | 72% | 2026-04-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2026-04-26 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2024-09-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2024-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1001 | 1219 | 22% | 2024-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1042 | 44% | 2023-10-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2023-04-08 | | Won |
| 1187 | 900 | 84% | 2023-02-19 | | Won |
| 1431 | 925 | 95% | 2022-03-31 | | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-19 | | Lost |
| 944 | 1164 | 22% | 2022-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1102 | 909 | 75% | 2021-08-09 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1099 | 30% | 2020-09-12 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2020-04-07 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-07-20 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1000 | 64% | 2019-07-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2016-12-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2016-06-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2016-06-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2016-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2016-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2014-06-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2014-06-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2014-06-13 | | Won |
| 1146 | 1000 | 70% | 2014-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1084 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-01-08 | | Won |
| 1084 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-01-07 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1021 | 58% | 2012-12-01 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-08-15 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2012-01-04 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-08-01 | | Won |
| 940 | 966 | 46% | 2011-06-20 | | Won |
| 907 | 1000 | 37% | 2010-09-07 | | Lost |
| 953 | 1009 | 42% | 2010-08-23 | | Lost |
| 906 | 908 | 50% | 2010-08-15 | | Won |
| 996 | 1167 | 27% | 2010-06-13 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2010-03-20 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2008-09-02 | | Won |
| 1167 | 960 | 77% | 2007-10-28 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1132 | 33% | 2007-10-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1205 | 24% | 2007-10-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2007-10-17 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2007-09-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1181 | 26% | 2007-06-20 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2007-02-16 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-12-02 | | Won |
| 1054 | 1099 | 44% | 2006-11-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2006-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-11-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2006-09-30 | | Lost |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2006-09-15 | | Won |
| 922 | 1000 | 39% | 2006-09-07 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1031 | 41% | 2006-09-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1034 | 45% | 2006-08-23 | | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1027.8 vs 1042.4 has a 47.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).