Massacre au Paradis
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 144 (22 on the archive and 122 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 71
Defender wins (British): 72
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 981 | 60% | 2022-06-24 | Won |
| 938 | 1016 | 39% | 2021-03-12 | Won |
| 1021 | 1058 | 45% | 2020-05-08 | Won |
| 1053 | 977 | 61% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1142 | 39% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1012 | 66% | 2018-04-12 | Won |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2015-01-01 | Won |
| 1053 | 1016 | 55% | 2014-09-25 | Won |
| 951 | 955 | 49% | 2014-06-23 | Lost |
| 1067 | 994 | 60% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1022 | 968 | 58% | 2010-03-31 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1129 | 50% | 2009-05-18 | Won |
| 1310 | 979 | 87% | 2008-06-11 | Won |
| 977 | 1400 | 8% | 2008-05-16 | Lost |
| 977 | 1310 | 13% | 2008-05-11 | Tied |
| 931 | 1100 | 27% | 2006-05-17 | Lost |
| 1009 | 931 | 61% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2002-03-20 | Lost |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-03-21 | Won |
| 984 | 829 | 71% | 2001-01-13 | Won |
| 923 | 1072 | 30% | 1995-10-01 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1029.6 vs 1044.8 has a 47.82% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).