Massacre au Paradis
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 159 (35 on the archive and 124 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 78
Defender wins (British): 80
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1167 | 959 | 77% | 2026-06-27 | Won |
| 994 | 1030 | 45% | 2026-06-26 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1117 | 50% | 2026-03-18 | Won |
| 1031 | 1032 | 50% | 2026-03-09 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1008 | 56% | 2025-10-11 | Won |
| 1144 | 998 | 70% | 2025-01-26 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1039 | 47% | 2024-11-03 | Lost |
| 1167 | 987 | 74% | 2022-06-24 | Won |
| 1002 | 945 | 58% | 2021-03-12 | Won |
| 1037 | 1080 | 44% | 2020-06-24 | Won |
| 980 | 969 | 52% | 2020-05-08 | Won |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1139 | 40% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2019-09-03 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1013 | 62% | 2018-04-12 | Won |
| 945 | 1021 | 39% | 2015-01-01 | Won |
| 969 | 945 | 53% | 2014-09-25 | Won |
| 987 | 965 | 53% | 2014-06-23 | Lost |
| 1070 | 996 | 60% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1022 | 968 | 58% | 2010-03-31 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1182 | 41% | 2009-05-18 | Won |
| 1219 | 979 | 80% | 2008-06-11 | Won |
| 969 | 1435 | 6% | 2008-05-16 | Lost |
| 969 | 1219 | 19% | 2008-05-11 | Tied |
| 1039 | 1025 | 52% | 2007-05-27 | Lost |
| 941 | 1099 | 29% | 2006-05-17 | Lost |
| 1009 | 907 | 64% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 899 | 1141 | 20% | 2002-09-06 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2002-03-20 | Lost |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2001-03-21 | Won |
| 984 | 827 | 71% | 2001-01-13 | Won |
| 1344 | 1089 | 81% | 2000-08-24 | Won |
| 1141 | 777 | 89% | 2000-07-10 | Won |
| 1219 | 1263 | 44% | 2000-02-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1077 | 62% | 1995-10-01 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1054.2 vs 1037.5 has a 52.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).