Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (24 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 36
Defender wins (American): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 945 | 1181 | 20% | 2026-07-03 | Lost |
| 1176 | 964 | 77% | 2025-09-24 | Won |
| 965 | 1033 | 40% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 984 | 969 | 52% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 994 | 1070 | 39% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1033 | 1077 | 44% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1120 | 64% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1042 | 1144 | 36% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1101 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 965 | 1087 | 33% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1126 | 61% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 992 | 1077 | 38% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1084 | 1000 | 62% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1017 | 56% | 2008-07-09 | Won |
| 1141 | 1089 | 57% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1141 | 777 | 89% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 1060 | 1347 | 16% | 2006-04-14 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1147 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1119 | 1122 | 50% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1026 | 1060 | 45% | 2005-10-21 | Lost |
| 1176 | 951 | 79% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1066.1 vs 1063 has a 50.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).