Historical Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 4 (2 on the archive and 2 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1142 | 1151 | 49% | 2026-06-07 | Lost |
| 1238 | 1253 | 48% | 2025-09-17 | Lost |
Attacking (0 wins) average ELOs: 1190 vs 1202 has a 48.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).