Prelude to Festung Brest
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62
Attacker wins (American): 27
Defender wins (German): 33
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 972 | 1014 | 44% | 2024-09-19 | Won |
| 1015 | 992 | 53% | 2024-09-12 | Won |
| 990 | 972 | 53% | 2024-08-09 | Won |
| 1062 | 909 | 71% | 2023-12-03 | Lost |
| 909 | 1062 | 29% | 2023-11-30 | Won |
| 1149 | 1117 | 55% | 2023-11-12 | Won |
| 873 | 910 | 45% | 2023-11-01 | Won |
| 1036 | 1034 | 50% | 2023-09-28 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1277 | 42% | 2023-06-19 | Lost |
| 982 | 1106 | 33% | 2023-01-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1106 | 33% | 2023-01-05 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1275 | 31% | 2022-08-19 | Lost |
| 1177 | 972 | 76% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-10-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-09-14 | Lost |
| 828 | 878 | 43% | 2021-08-27 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-02-22 | Won |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 972 | 981 | 49% | 2021-01-17 | Won |
| 1076 | 940 | 69% | 2021-01-01 | Lost |
| 1141 | 964 | 73% | 2020-12-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 1023 | 46% | 2020-11-05 | Lost |
| 969 | 1023 | 42% | 2020-11-02 | Won |
| 1023 | 969 | 58% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1115 | 1228 | 34% | 2020-07-09 | Lost |
| 972 | 995 | 47% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 926 | 993 | 40% | 2020-02-24 | Lost |
| 972 | 1086 | 34% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 909 | 1028 | 34% | 2019-03-27 | Lost |
| 1014 | 985 | 54% | 2019-02-22 | Lost |
| 972 | 1022 | 43% | 2018-10-08 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1094 | 50% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1142 | 1101 | 56% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1001 | 972 | 54% | 2017-04-17 | Lost |
| 993 | 1329 | 13% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1191 | 893 | 85% | 2016-12-27 | Won |
| 880 | 878 | 50% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 972 | 878 | 63% | 2016-07-26 | Tied |
| 1014 | 954 | 59% | 2016-07-26 | Won |
| 1178 | 1431 | 19% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2015-07-24 | Won |
| 1099 | 1114 | 48% | 2015-06-28 | Won |
| 1200 | 1151 | 57% | 2014-12-26 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1049 | 61% | 2014-06-03 | Won |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-01-30 | Won |
| 1220 | 1212 | 51% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-04-01 | Won |
| 996 | 1037 | 44% | 2012-11-11 | Lost |
| 1022 | 972 | 57% | 2011-08-02 | Won |
| 1022 | 972 | 57% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 985 | 1014 | 46% | 2010-11-10 | Won |
| 972 | 1023 | 43% | 2010-05-22 | Lost |
| 936 | 936 | 50% | 2010-02-13 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1228 | 37% | 2009-10-14 | Won |
| 953 | 1006 | 42% | 2009-05-14 | Lost |
| 889 | 920 | 46% | 2009-01-28 | Lost |
| 946 | 1019 | 40% | 2009-01-15 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1216 | 24% | 2009-01-04 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1050 | 55% | 2008-11-02 | Won |
| 1037 | 1097 | 41% | 2008-10-17 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1084 | 45% | 2008-07-13 | Won |
| 1096 | 984 | 66% | 2006-10-22 | Lost |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1036.6 vs 1046.1 has a 48.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).