Prelude to Festung Brest
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 60
Attacker wins (American): 25
Defender wins (German): 33
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 997 | 1019 | 47% | 2024-09-19 | Won |
| 1039 | 987 | 57% | 2024-09-12 | Won |
| 1006 | 974 | 55% | 2024-08-09 | Won |
| 1060 | 901 | 71% | 2023-12-03 | Lost |
| 901 | 1060 | 29% | 2023-11-30 | Won |
| 1115 | 1117 | 50% | 2023-11-12 | Won |
| 900 | 910 | 49% | 2023-11-01 | Won |
| 1036 | 1034 | 50% | 2023-09-28 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1266 | 43% | 2023-06-19 | Lost |
| 971 | 1164 | 25% | 2023-01-09 | Lost |
| 971 | 1164 | 25% | 2023-01-05 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1225 | 37% | 2022-08-19 | Lost |
| 1168 | 974 | 75% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-10-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-09-14 | Lost |
| 828 | 877 | 43% | 2021-08-27 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-02-22 | Won |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 974 | 981 | 49% | 2021-01-17 | Won |
| 1076 | 924 | 71% | 2021-01-01 | Lost |
| 1141 | 964 | 73% | 2020-12-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 1002 | 49% | 2020-11-05 | Lost |
| 969 | 1002 | 45% | 2020-11-02 | Won |
| 1002 | 969 | 55% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1116 | 1214 | 36% | 2020-07-09 | Lost |
| 974 | 996 | 47% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 926 | 993 | 40% | 2020-02-24 | Lost |
| 974 | 1051 | 39% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 901 | 1027 | 33% | 2019-03-27 | Lost |
| 1019 | 983 | 55% | 2019-02-22 | Lost |
| 974 | 1025 | 43% | 2018-10-08 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1101 | 49% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1002 | 974 | 54% | 2017-04-17 | Lost |
| 993 | 1302 | 14% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1213 | 893 | 86% | 2016-12-27 | Won |
| 877 | 877 | 50% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1014 | 954 | 59% | 2016-07-26 | Won |
| 974 | 877 | 64% | 2016-07-26 | Tied |
| 1178 | 1431 | 19% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2015-07-24 | Won |
| 1099 | 1113 | 48% | 2015-06-28 | Won |
| 1208 | 1147 | 59% | 2014-12-26 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1072 | 58% | 2014-06-03 | Won |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-01-30 | Won |
| 1208 | 1208 | 50% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-04-01 | Won |
| 996 | 1038 | 44% | 2012-11-11 | Lost |
| 1025 | 974 | 57% | 2011-08-02 | Won |
| 1025 | 974 | 57% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1019 | 45% | 2010-11-10 | Won |
| 974 | 1007 | 45% | 2010-05-22 | Lost |
| 936 | 936 | 50% | 2010-02-13 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1228 | 37% | 2009-10-14 | Won |
| 940 | 1006 | 41% | 2009-05-14 | Lost |
| 890 | 918 | 46% | 2009-01-28 | Lost |
| 946 | 1019 | 40% | 2009-01-15 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1216 | 24% | 2009-01-04 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1087 | 43% | 2008-10-17 | Lost |
| 1093 | 984 | 65% | 2006-10-22 | Lost |
Attacking (26 wins) average ELOs: 1035 vs 1043.9 has a 48.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).