Strayer's Strays
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 237 (40 on the archive and 197 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 94
Defender wins (German): 143
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2023-06-17 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2022-01-10 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2021-09-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2021-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1070 | 974 | 63% | 2021-06-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 904 | 63% | 2020-09-04 | | Lost |
| 1258 | 1167 | 63% | 2020-09-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-06-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2018-11-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2018-05-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2018-01-01 | | Won |
| 966 | 994 | 46% | 2017-06-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2017-04-04 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1138 | 61% | 2017-03-06 | | Won |
| 951 | 1088 | 31% | 2017-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2017-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2017-01-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2016-11-24 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1077 | 50% | 2016-09-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2016-06-16 | | Lost |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2015-12-08 | | Lost |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2015-12-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2015-07-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2015-07-22 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-02-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2011-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 943 | 71% | 2011-01-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 2010-03-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2010-02-19 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2007-08-26 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2004-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2001-04-22 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 1999-06-22 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 1998-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 1998-08-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 1998-06-12 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 1997-11-16 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1317 | 20% | 1996-09-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1034.1 vs 1047.1 has a 48.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).