The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 204 (11 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 95
Defender wins (German): 109
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1149 | 1283 | 32% | 2026-09-29 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2022-10-27 | | Won |
| 1283 | 729 | 96% | 2020-11-23 | | Won |
| 952 | 1133 | 26% | 2020-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1033 | 46% | 2020-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 970 | 72% | 2020-11-05 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2020-11-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2016-11-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2004-09-29 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2001-07-31 | | Won |
| 1054 | 1088 | 45% | 1997-10-08 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1054.2 vs 1042.8 has a 51.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).