The Pouppeville Exit
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 130 (27 on the archive and 103 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 67
Defender wins (German): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2026-10-04 | | Won |
| 1116 | 1051 | 59% | 2026-09-13 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-09-29 | | Won |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2025-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 878 | 67% | 2022-11-13 | | Won |
| 861 | 1046 | 26% | 2022-10-07 | | Won |
| 1227 | 946 | 83% | 2022-07-17 | | Lost |
| 880 | 1000 | 33% | 2020-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2020-05-20 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1031 | 77% | 2018-02-23 | | Won |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2017-03-19 | | Won |
| 1091 | 1080 | 52% | 2016-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 992 | 69% | 2016-05-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2016-01-30 | | Lost |
| 957 | 1084 | 32% | 2015-11-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2012-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 917 | 62% | 2011-04-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2010-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2010-08-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2009-01-21 | | Won |
| 1183 | 893 | 84% | 2007-12-04 | | Won |
| 827 | 1000 | 27% | 2002-03-05 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2001-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2000-07-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 1998-01-06 | | Won |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1044 vs 1008 has a 55.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).