The Hedgehog of Piepsk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 160 (32 on the archive and 129 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 89
Defender wins (German): 71
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-06-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2023-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1241 | 1000 | 80% | 2023-10-04 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-07-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2023-05-22 | | Won |
| 1004 | 962 | 56% | 2023-03-10 | A | Won |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2022-12-15 | | Won |
| 1099 | 1000 | 64% | 2021-12-30 | | Won |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2021-01-09 | | Won |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2021-01-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 928 | 60% | 2020-12-01 | | Won |
| 950 | 1099 | 30% | 2020-09-19 | | Lost |
| 1102 | 1030 | 60% | 2020-07-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2020-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2020-04-12 | | Lost |
| 988 | 1099 | 35% | 2019-11-09 | | Lost |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2019-04-24 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-02-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2018-02-27 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2017-09-09 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2017-03-10 | | Lost |
| 980 | 1040 | 41% | 2015-05-19 | | Won |
| 820 | 848 | 46% | 2014-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 829 | 83% | 2013-08-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2010-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2007-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 1132 | 64% | 2007-04-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 832 | 72% | 2006-07-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2006-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2000-06-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2000-04-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2000-03-28 | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1018.5 vs 1019.7 has a 49.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).