Escape to Wiltz
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 118 (29 on the archive and 91 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 66
Defender wins (German): 52
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2025-12-26 | | Won |
| 979 | 1074 | 37% | 2025-10-03 | D | Lost |
| 1000 | 1197 | 24% | 2025-09-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2023-12-17 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2023-11-17 | A | Won |
| 1033 | 924 | 65% | 2023-01-18 | | Lost |
| 949 | 780 | 73% | 2023-01-05 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1077 | 56% | 2020-02-01 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1077 | 56% | 2020-02-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2016-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2015-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 959 | 77% | 2012-05-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1034 | 45% | 2011-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1045 | 62% | 2010-12-21 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2008-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2008-01-01 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1012 | 46% | 2006-01-14 | | Lost |
| 907 | 1181 | 17% | 2005-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2005-02-04 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2005-02-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 907 | 63% | 2004-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2004-05-28 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2004-05-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2004-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1310 | 1185 | 67% | 2004-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2004-02-21 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2004-02-10 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1131 | 37% | 2004-01-28 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 1122 | 59% | 2004-01-17 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1058.4 vs 1049.7 has a 51.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).