Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 117 (23 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 57
Defender wins (French): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 989 | 60% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1150 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1008 | 991 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1065 | 71% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1110 | 47% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 948 | 1082 | 32% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1074 | 52% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 975 | 975 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1244 | 1044 | 76% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1045 | 1048 | 50% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 916 | 939 | 47% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 916 | 959 | 44% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1094 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1110 | 76% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1109 | 1112 | 50% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1016 | 1189 | 27% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 1106 | 1042 | 59% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 1008 | 1151 | 31% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 928 | 1109 | 26% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1079 | 69% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1057.5 vs 1070 has a 48.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).