Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 118 (24 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 58
Defender wins (French): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1065 | 1006 | 58% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1151 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1065 | 62% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1110 | 47% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1051 | 55% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 953 | 968 | 48% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1245 | 1089 | 71% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1044 | 1028 | 52% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 938 | 939 | 50% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 938 | 960 | 47% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1093 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1110 | 78% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1122 | 1068 | 58% | 2010-04-24 | Won |
| 1050 | 1124 | 40% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1020 | 1196 | 27% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 1112 | 1042 | 60% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 1008 | 1152 | 30% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 928 | 1082 | 29% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1104 | 66% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1058.6 vs 1071.5 has a 48.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).