Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 123 (29 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 60
Defender wins (French): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 1038 | 61% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1152 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1200 | 1077 | 67% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1058 | 55% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 1147 | 934 | 77% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1076 | 983 | 63% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1172 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1249 | 1080 | 73% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1303 | 1264 | 56% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1264 | 953 | 86% | 2017-06-17 | Won |
| 1043 | 1019 | 53% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 996 | 930 | 59% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 996 | 960 | 55% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1094 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1232 | 1111 | 67% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1122 | 1059 | 59% | 2010-04-24 | Won |
| 1040 | 1143 | 36% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1264 | 38% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1002 | 1165 | 28% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 1023 | 1040 | 48% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 1008 | 1140 | 32% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 1264 | 958 | 85% | 2003-07-11 | Won |
| 927 | 1024 | 36% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1054 | 84% | 2003-01-18 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1036 | 85% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1106.4 vs 1063.2 has a 56.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).