Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (30 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 60
Defender wins (French): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1147 | 1051 | 63% | 2020-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1215 | 1152 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1125 | 1077 | 57% | 2020-05-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2019-06-28 | | Won |
| 1017 | 1044 | 46% | 2018-06-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2018-05-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2018-04-10 | | Won |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2017-07-28 | | Won |
| 1317 | 1263 | 58% | 2017-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2017-06-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2017-05-20 | | Won |
| 1029 | 930 | 64% | 2017-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 960 | 60% | 2015-11-06 | | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | | Won |
| 870 | 1093 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2011-10-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2010-04-24 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1143 | 41% | 2009-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2009-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2007-09-08 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1192 | 26% | 2006-02-26 | | Won |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2004-03-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2004-02-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2003-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 959 | 85% | 2003-07-11 | | Won |
| 907 | 1000 | 37% | 2003-05-17 | | Lost |
| 1344 | 1054 | 84% | 2003-01-18 | | Lost |
| 1344 | 1070 | 83% | | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1068.8 vs 1063.5 has a 50.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).