Audacity!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 182 (23 on the archive and 159 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German ): 91
Defender wins (French): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1013 | 950 | 59% | 2023-06-25 | Won |
| 996 | 933 | 59% | 2023-05-17 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1001 | 51% | 2023-04-14 | Won |
| 1036 | 1007 | 54% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 975 | 975 | 50% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 992 | 1004 | 48% | 2021-04-25 | Lost |
| 966 | 914 | 57% | 2021-03-04 | Won |
| 950 | 1153 | 24% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1031 | 1127 | 37% | 2021-02-23 | Won |
| 938 | 1075 | 31% | 2019-09-30 | Won |
| 949 | 1114 | 28% | 2018-12-11 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1105 | 49% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
| 1202 | 914 | 84% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
| 1211 | 954 | 81% | 2012-10-27 | Won |
| 931 | 1060 | 32% | 2012-02-10 | Won |
| 1031 | 1056 | 46% | 2010-01-23 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1029 | 63% | 2007-03-07 | Won |
| 1106 | 1043 | 59% | 2002-12-31 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1148 | 46% | 2002-10-10 | Lost |
| 1009 | 927 | 62% | 2001-10-27 | Won |
| 1100 | 1096 | 51% | 2001-06-28 | Lost |
| 1100 | 890 | 77% | 2001-06-23 | Won |
| 1148 | 704 | 93% | 2001-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1044.8 vs 1007.8 has a 55.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).