High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 156 (24 on the archive and 132 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 65
Defender wins (German): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-10-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1005 | 49% | 2014-05-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2014-02-01 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-07-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2010-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2008-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 884 | 66% | 2008-04-04 | | Lost |
| 964 | 1000 | 45% | 2005-11-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2005-11-27 | | Won |
| 1109 | 1000 | 65% | 2005-09-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 884 | 66% | 2005-04-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 884 | 66% | 2003-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 884 | 66% | 2003-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2002-04-20 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1025 | 49% | 2001-12-07 | | Won |
| 993 | 1000 | 49% | 2001-09-16 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2001-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1307 | 15% | 2001-01-21 | | Lost |
| 884 | 1000 | 34% | 2000-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2000-04-20 | | Won |
| 1055 | 849 | 77% | 2000-04-11 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2000-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1004.5 vs 987.1 has a 52.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).