The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (American): 12
Defender wins (Italian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1216 | 1182 | 55% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 945 | 948 | 50% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 958 | 958 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1111 | 1214 | 36% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 945 | 1041 | 37% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1067 | 958 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1340 | 12% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1137 | 983 | 71% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1089 | 901 | 75% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 954 | 75% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 999 | 1078 | 39% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1080 | 1202 | 33% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 920 | 1031 | 35% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1090 | 38% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1067 | 50% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1062 | 51% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1034.6 vs 1064.1 has a 45.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).