Merzenhausen Zoo
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 190 (32 on the archive and 158 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 98
Defender wins (German): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 964 | 1013 | 43% | 2025-10-30 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1072 | 67% | 2024-03-24 | Lost |
| 781 | 1024 | 20% | 2022-12-19 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1095 | 39% | 2022-11-21 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2022-10-10 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2022-08-31 | Won |
| 1117 | 1167 | 43% | 2022-06-27 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1111 | 65% | 2021-02-28 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-10-30 | Lost |
| 976 | 1047 | 40% | 2019-08-24 | Won |
| 1119 | 1216 | 36% | 2018-02-18 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1009 | 77% | 2018-01-01 | Tied |
| 1149 | 970 | 74% | 2016-08-24 | Won |
| 1078 | 978 | 64% | 2015-03-15 | Won |
| 951 | 890 | 59% | 2014-01-01 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1029 | 60% | 2013-01-10 | Lost |
| 1094 | 954 | 69% | 2012-11-30 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1094 | 39% | 2011-07-17 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1091 | 57% | 2011-04-29 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2010-11-01 | Won |
| 1213 | 1038 | 73% | 2009-12-22 | Lost |
| 998 | 1084 | 38% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1419 | 1286 | 68% | 2007-03-01 | Won |
| 1151 | 985 | 72% | 2003-11-07 | Lost |
| 1186 | 831 | 89% | 2003-03-27 | Won |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 2003-02-25 | Lost |
| 1151 | 999 | 71% | 2001-10-06 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1000 | 74% | 2000-12-10 | Lost |
| 890 | 1100 | 23% | 2000-09-24 | Won |
| 1100 | 890 | 77% | 2000-07-11 | Won |
| 1109 | 1117 | 49% | 2000-06-11 | Won |
| 1047 | 790 | 81% | 2000-03-26 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1095.8 vs 1034.5 has a 58.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).