First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (22 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (Free French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1052 | 1005 | 57% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1052 | 1005 | 57% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 944 | 1024 | 39% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 882 | 755 | 68% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 997 | 991 | 51% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1226 | 1098 | 68% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1050 | 693 | 89% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 907 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1293 | 18% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1032 | 71% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 1014 | 1046 | 45% | 2006-06-02 | Won |
| 953 | 1037 | 38% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1093 | 1139 | 43% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1028 | 51% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1127 | 866 | 82% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1139 | 953 | 74% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 1139 | 33% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1104 | 830 | 83% | | Won |
| 1030 | 1104 | 40% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1039.3 vs 1010.1 has a 54.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).