First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (24 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 49
Defender wins (Free French): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1072 | 968 | 65% | 2023-10-22 | | Won |
| 1072 | 968 | 65% | 2023-10-22 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2020-07-31 | | Won |
| 955 | 1032 | 39% | 2020-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 692 | 85% | 2020-06-27 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-03-09 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-05-28 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1106 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | | Won |
| 1062 | 695 | 89% | 2011-03-12 | | Won |
| 987 | 1242 | 19% | 2011-01-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2010-06-16 | | Won |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1269 | 21% | 2006-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1169 | 1000 | 73% | 2006-06-14 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2006-06-02 | | Won |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2003-11-30 | | Won |
| 1242 | 976 | 82% | 2001-11-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 991 | 51% | 1999-05-28 | | Won |
| 1054 | 1059 | 49% | 1998-10-01 | | Won |
| 1167 | 866 | 85% | 1995-12-12 | | Won |
| 1150 | 956 | 75% | 1995-08-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 1995-07-21 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 832 | 81% | | | Won |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1054.7 vs 998.4 has a 58.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).