Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 140 (14 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 63
Defender wins (German): 77
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1135 | 1154 | 47% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1079 | 1100 | 47% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 909 | 886 | 53% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1135 | 1219 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 947 | 1143 | 24% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 928 | 58% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1121 | 51% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1011 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 931 | 1011 | 39% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1194 | 1152 | 56% | 2007-07-07 | Lost |
| 988 | 1066 | 39% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 996 | 1028 | 45% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1200 | 44% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1053.2 vs 1071.8 has a 47.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).