Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (13 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 63
Defender wins (German): 76
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1158 | 1143 | 52% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1012 | 1108 | 37% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 901 | 928 | 46% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1135 | 1219 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 958 | 1195 | 20% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 928 | 58% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1142 | 54% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1010 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 932 | 1010 | 39% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1004 | 1002 | 50% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 1014 | 1012 | 50% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1208 | 41% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1044.2 vs 1068.5 has a 46.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).