Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 140 (14 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 63
Defender wins (German): 77
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1170 | 1170 | 50% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1057 | 1100 | 44% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 896 | 908 | 48% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1136 | 1220 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 1092 | 1132 | 44% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 928 | 58% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1144 | 44% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1011 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 930 | 1011 | 39% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1191 | 1148 | 56% | 2007-07-07 | Lost |
| 948 | 1082 | 32% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 1010 | 1057 | 43% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1202 | 42% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1059.1 vs 1078.5 has a 47.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).