The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1133 | 949 | 74% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1185 | 1085 | 64% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1024 | 65% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1161 | 1068 | 63% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1227 | 32% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1220 | 967 | 81% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 975 | 974 | 50% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1136 | 40% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 969 | 1038 | 40% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1027 | 884 | 69% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1234 | 1214 | 53% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 974 | 1141 | 28% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1080 | 65% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 994 | 967 | 54% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1166 | 51% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1084 | 41% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 2003-05-13 | Won |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 2003-03-12 | Won |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1076.5 vs 1049.2 has a 53.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).