The Red House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (22 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 49
Defender wins (German): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 847 | 1016 | 27% | 2026-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2022-04-30 | | Won |
| 969 | 1132 | 28% | 2021-12-11 | | Lost |
| 1097 | 1070 | 54% | 2021-10-09 | | Won |
| 1015 | 979 | 55% | 2020-07-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2018-05-12 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2018-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2018-04-08 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1074 | 37% | 2017-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1204 | 983 | 78% | 2015-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 695 | 89% | 2013-05-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2013-02-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2011-12-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1131 | 32% | 2006-10-12 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-10-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2006-01-18 | | Won |
| 1131 | 1040 | 63% | 2006-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2004-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 1160 | 52% | 2002-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2001-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 1988-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1030.5 vs 1034.5 has a 49.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).