Acts of Defiance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (Russian): 18
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 2024-06-30 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1309 | 22% | 2024-03-22 | Lost |
| 933 | 1045 | 34% | 2024-01-29 | Lost |
| 1201 | 992 | 77% | 2023-01-02 | Won |
| 1225 | 1002 | 78% | 2022-10-21 | Won |
| 1009 | 1137 | 32% | 2022-10-18 | Won |
| 1219 | 1017 | 76% | 2022-06-28 | Won |
| 1219 | 1118 | 64% | 2022-06-28 | Won |
| 933 | 872 | 59% | 2021-09-02 | Lost |
| 1053 | 991 | 59% | 2021-07-14 | Won |
| 919 | 1009 | 37% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
| 840 | 1097 | 19% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1213 | 26% | 2019-06-13 | Lost |
| 877 | 992 | 34% | 2018-12-31 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1309 | 29% | 2018-05-05 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1047 | 52% | 2018-02-17 | Won |
| 999 | 1138 | 31% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1213 | 960 | 81% | 2017-07-20 | Won |
| 1093 | 1049 | 56% | 2017-06-27 | Lost |
| 914 | 896 | 53% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2017-05-29 | Lost |
| 1014 | 995 | 53% | 2016-10-08 | Lost |
| 984 | 1018 | 45% | 2016-09-17 | Won |
| 1087 | 1093 | 49% | 2015-07-19 | Tied |
| 1039 | 903 | 69% | 2014-10-07 | Won |
| 1066 | 917 | 70% | 2012-05-12 | Won |
| 984 | 1018 | 45% | 2011-06-11 | Won |
| 1039 | 989 | 57% | 2009-10-24 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1097 | 37% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 1176 | 1405 | 21% | 2007-09-08 | Lost |
| 1309 | 1051 | 82% | 2006-02-12 | Won |
| 965 | 986 | 47% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
| 984 | 1018 | 45% | 2003-10-03 | Won |
| 1054 | 1029 | 54% | 2002-01-01 | Won |
| 964 | 992 | 46% | 1999-03-29 | Lost |
| 905 | 964 | 42% | 1998-03-13 | Lost |
| 940 | 1222 | 16% | 1995-08-02 | Lost |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1043.5 vs 1052.3 has a 48.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).