First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Russian): 8
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1093 | 1144 | 43% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 996 | 987 | 51% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 996 | 1252 | 19% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 962 | 1166 | 24% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1189 | 36% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1175 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 1036 | 1007 | 54% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 944 | 1092 | 30% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 935 | 69% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 986 | 1019 | 45% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1010 | 78% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1057 | 1193 | 31% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1252 | 28% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1094 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1060 | 977 | 62% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1166 | 18% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 998 | 1086 | 38% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1133 | 1139 | 49% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1086 | 904 | 74% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1049 vs 1094.8 has a 43.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).