First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Russian): 8
Defender wins (German): 13
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1093 | 1144 | 43% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1002 | 987 | 52% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1225 | 22% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 962 | 1164 | 24% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 958 | 1183 | 21% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1175 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 956 | 1089 | 32% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 954 | 958 | 49% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 924 | 71% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1002 | 51% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1011 | 78% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1213 | 24% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1225 | 31% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1093 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1039 | 976 | 59% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1164 | 18% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 993 | 1087 | 37% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1080 | 1135 | 42% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1087 | 905 | 74% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1034.9 vs 1088.7 has a 42.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).