First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 61 (23 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 18
Defender wins (German): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1061 | 981 | 61% | 2025-08-22 | Won |
| 1107 | 1143 | 45% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1004 | 987 | 52% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1182 | 26% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 980 | 1117 | 31% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1152 | 37% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1175 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 1010 | 1032 | 47% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 948 | 1061 | 34% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 944 | 68% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1233 | 999 | 79% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1033 | 1090 | 42% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1182 | 37% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1135 | 43% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1146 | 982 | 72% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1117 | 22% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 965 | 1102 | 31% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1031 | 1139 | 35% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
| 1268 | 1151 | 66% | 2004-04-01 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1063.8 vs 1075.2 has a 48.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).