The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (24 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 25
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 948 | 999 | 43% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 954 | 1009 | 42% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 978 | 1018 | 44% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1094 | 1074 | 53% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1184 | 964 | 78% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1058 | 1021 | 55% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 994 | 964 | 54% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1214 | 27% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 997 | 52% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1046 | 1044 | 50% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1031 | 1002 | 54% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1259 | 998 | 82% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 999 | 955 | 56% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1111 | 1116 | 49% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 981 | 1214 | 21% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1259 | 20% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1069 | 52% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 882 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 976 | 1310 | 13% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 983 | 940 | 56% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1043.4 vs 1049.2 has a 49.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).