Tavronitis Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 105 (38 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 62
Defender wins (New Zealand): 41
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (New Zealand): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1063 | 1011 | 57% | 2024-03-19 | Lost |
| 884 | 884 | 50% | 2024-02-05 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1134 | 49% | 2024-01-24 | Lost |
| 952 | 915 | 55% | 2023-12-28 | Lost |
| 952 | 915 | 55% | 2023-12-21 | Won |
| 952 | 915 | 55% | 2023-12-08 | Lost |
| 981 | 971 | 51% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1184 | 964 | 78% | 2022-08-07 | Won |
| 930 | 1069 | 31% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 930 | 930 | 50% | 2022-01-24 | Won |
| 1061 | 767 | 84% | 2021-11-12 | Won |
| 1049 | 1049 | 50% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 1034 | 1047 | 48% | 2020-04-10 | Won |
| 1056 | 1005 | 57% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1040 | 930 | 65% | 2020-01-18 | Won |
| 911 | 969 | 42% | 2020-01-09 | Lost |
| 935 | 885 | 57% | 2018-03-06 | Lost |
| 968 | 1058 | 37% | 2018-03-04 | Won |
| 973 | 930 | 56% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 949 | 903 | 57% | 2017-07-07 | Won |
| 1020 | 930 | 63% | 2017-06-04 | Won |
| 986 | 1247 | 18% | 2017-03-17 | Won |
| 1057 | 930 | 68% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 952 | 1060 | 35% | 2016-12-31 | Won |
| 1016 | 1091 | 39% | 2016-11-20 | Won |
| 1031 | 1074 | 44% | 2016-09-23 | Lost |
| 995 | 931 | 59% | 2016-06-22 | Won |
| 1023 | 1011 | 52% | 2015-08-04 | Lost |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2013-08-05 | Won |
| 982 | 1035 | 42% | 2013-08-05 | Won |
| 952 | 919 | 55% | 2013-06-21 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1009 | 50% | 2012-07-04 | Tied |
| 924 | 911 | 52% | 2012-06-11 | Won |
| 977 | 929 | 57% | 2011-05-02 | Lost |
| 1072 | 997 | 61% | 2011-02-25 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1011 | 51% | 2009-10-13 | Won |
| 1124 | 1120 | 51% | 2002-11-16 | Won |
| 1119 | 829 | 84% | 2002-04-24 | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1005.8 vs 980.7 has a 53.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).