Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 158 (32 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 82
Defender wins (Polish): 76
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1033 | 1033 | 50% | 2026-05-25 | Won |
| 1092 | 1032 | 59% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 948 | 945 | 50% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1102 | 910 | 75% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 928 | 792 | 69% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 1160 | 945 | 78% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1156 | 54% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1006 | 63% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 965 | 995 | 46% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 939 | 1144 | 24% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1028 | 71% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 875 | 1060 | 26% | 2014-10-23 | Lost |
| 1060 | 875 | 74% | 2014-10-02 | Won |
| 1077 | 999 | 61% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 966 | 1126 | 28% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 866 | 1015 | 30% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1233 | 42% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1029 | 64% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1227 | 1049 | 74% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1044 | 1056 | 48% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1036 | 1080 | 44% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 1080 | 855 | 79% | 2000-02-04 | Lost |
| 970 | 1077 | 35% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 1030 | 1031 | 50% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 909 | 1167 | 18% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 1197 | 1119 | 61% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 777 | 1141 | 11% | 1999-01-05 | Lost |
| 1072 | 926 | 70% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1033.7 vs 1036.8 has a 49.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).