An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 132 (33 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 80
Defender wins (German): 49
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Polish): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1082 | 948 | 68% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 1051 | 864 | 75% | 2025-01-15 | Won |
| 1004 | 944 | 59% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
| 1095 | 1030 | 59% | 2022-01-18 | Won |
| 1108 | 966 | 69% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
| 848 | 888 | 44% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1007 | 54% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 993 | 964 | 54% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 858 | 1151 | 16% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1035 | 1193 | 29% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1230 | 1013 | 78% | 2018-08-07 | Lost |
| 1252 | 960 | 84% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1080 | 1095 | 48% | 2016-03-30 | Won |
| 1053 | 1193 | 31% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
| 949 | 987 | 45% | 2014-02-20 | Won |
| 1075 | 1223 | 30% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
| 975 | 939 | 55% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
| 1030 | 1038 | 49% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1041 | 65% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
| 988 | 1148 | 28% | 2011-09-23 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1175 | 47% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
| 1228 | 1180 | 57% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 929 | 1029 | 36% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1113 | 53% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1202 | 809 | 91% | 2001-03-01 | Won |
| 1032 | 1148 | 34% | 2000-10-06 | Won |
| 1148 | 969 | 74% | 1999-10-08 | Won |
| 1068 | 1133 | 41% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 1059 | 872 | 75% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
| 1105 | 1230 | 33% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1057.5 vs 1037.5 has a 52.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).