An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 135 (35 on the archive and 100 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 81
Defender wins (German): 51
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Polish): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 841 | 1040 | 24% | 2026-02-18 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2025-10-17 | Won |
| 953 | 1126 | 27% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 1040 | 841 | 76% | 2025-01-15 | Won |
| 1097 | 948 | 70% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
| 1060 | 1022 | 55% | 2022-01-18 | Won |
| 1102 | 899 | 76% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 888 | 57% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 954 | 1097 | 31% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 993 | 964 | 54% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 851 | 1123 | 17% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1035 | 1083 | 43% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1077 | 1080 | 50% | 2018-08-07 | Lost |
| 1225 | 958 | 82% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1079 | 1060 | 53% | 2016-03-30 | Won |
| 1053 | 1083 | 46% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
| 962 | 988 | 46% | 2014-02-20 | Won |
| 968 | 1226 | 18% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
| 909 | 939 | 46% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
| 951 | 1005 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
| 1027 | 1038 | 48% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1036 | 66% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1140 | 36% | 2011-09-23 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1202 | 37% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
| 1233 | 1180 | 58% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 929 | 1035 | 35% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1113 | 37% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1113 | 1057 | 58% | 2001-03-01 | Won |
| 1032 | 1140 | 35% | 2000-10-06 | Won |
| 1140 | 970 | 73% | 1999-10-08 | Won |
| 1110 | 1021 | 63% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 1097 | 873 | 78% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
| 1127 | 1077 | 57% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1036.7 vs 1037.1 has a 49.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).