Escape from Derna
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33 (6 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 5
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-06-22 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1097 | 52% | 2020-02-08 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1074 | 37% | 2018-03-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2012-09-08 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2012-08-25 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 1000 | 73% | 1995-06-29 | | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1054.5 vs 1034.5 has a 52.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).