Escape from Derna
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33 (6 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 5
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1082 | 1066 | 52% | 2026-06-22 | Won |
| 986 | 1028 | 44% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 954 | 1097 | 31% | 2018-03-29 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1036 | 54% | 2012-09-08 | Lost |
| 948 | 1028 | 39% | 2012-08-25 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1118 | 49% | 1995-06-29 | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1024.5 vs 1062.2 has a 44.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).