Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 241 (47 on the archive and 194 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 138
Defender wins (German): 101
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1093 | 41% | 2024-02-20 | Won |
| 1036 | 990 | 57% | 2024-01-07 | Lost |
| 983 | 1009 | 46% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
| 918 | 1106 | 25% | 2023-04-22 | Won |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 826 | 1156 | 13% | 2019-10-17 | Lost |
| 986 | 1013 | 46% | 2019-07-26 | Won |
| 1040 | 1040 | 50% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1005 | 1052 | 43% | 2016-09-12 | Lost |
| 973 | 1039 | 41% | 2016-08-21 | Won |
| 1029 | 951 | 61% | 2016-05-07 | Won |
| 1127 | 1114 | 52% | 2015-12-10 | Won |
| 985 | 986 | 50% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
| 1056 | 1037 | 53% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
| 1050 | 922 | 68% | 2014-06-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 942 | 71% | 2014-05-25 | Lost |
| 802 | 1203 | 9% | 2014-01-18 | Lost |
| 1203 | 802 | 91% | 2013-12-08 | Won |
| 1019 | 1203 | 26% | 2013-10-01 | Won |
| 1203 | 1063 | 69% | 2013-09-26 | Lost |
| 956 | 1063 | 35% | 2013-09-13 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1002 | 59% | 2013-04-28 | Won |
| 1068 | 1002 | 59% | 2012-12-31 | Won |
| 1089 | 1153 | 41% | 2012-12-02 | Lost |
| 951 | 890 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 951 | 861 | 63% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 1002 | 1068 | 41% | 2012-10-01 | Lost |
| 962 | 881 | 61% | 2011-09-14 | Won |
| 1177 | 1041 | 69% | 2010-03-18 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-11-16 | Won |
| 1006 | 1127 | 33% | 2009-07-30 | Lost |
| 919 | 1139 | 22% | 2009-02-27 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1028 | 50% | 2009-01-01 | Lost |
| 949 | 1039 | 37% | 2008-05-14 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1047 | 45% | 2007-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1026 | 47% | 2007-04-14 | Won |
| 1133 | 1228 | 37% | 2007-01-05 | Lost |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2005-01-15 | Won |
| 935 | 862 | 60% | 2005-01-14 | Won |
| 1009 | 1095 | 38% | 2004-11-18 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1034 | 65% | 2004-08-10 | Won |
| 1082 | 1095 | 48% | 2004-06-17 | Lost |
| 1127 | 987 | 69% | 2002-09-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1095 | 39% | 2002-06-29 | Lost |
| 1156 | 911 | 80% | 1994-04-10 | Lost |
Attacking (26 wins) average ELOs: 1032.1 vs 1028.1 has a 50.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).