Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42
Attacker wins (American): 22
Defender wins (German): 18
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1036 | 990 | 57% | 2024-01-07 | Lost |
| 971 | 971 | 50% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
| 918 | 1100 | 26% | 2023-04-22 | Won |
| 997 | 984 | 52% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 858 | 1126 | 18% | 2019-10-17 | Lost |
| 940 | 998 | 42% | 2019-07-26 | Won |
| 1046 | 1044 | 50% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1223 | 1007 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1002 | 1031 | 46% | 2016-09-12 | Lost |
| 972 | 999 | 46% | 2016-08-21 | Won |
| 1059 | 923 | 69% | 2016-05-07 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-12-10 | Won |
| 983 | 940 | 56% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
| 994 | 990 | 51% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
| 1023 | 968 | 58% | 2014-06-07 | Won |
| 1094 | 944 | 70% | 2014-05-25 | Lost |
| 849 | 1116 | 18% | 2014-01-18 | Lost |
| 1116 | 849 | 82% | 2013-12-08 | Won |
| 1018 | 1116 | 36% | 2013-10-01 | Won |
| 1116 | 1048 | 60% | 2013-09-26 | Lost |
| 956 | 1048 | 37% | 2013-09-13 | Lost |
| 951 | 863 | 62% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 951 | 889 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 924 | 911 | 52% | 2011-09-14 | Won |
| 1177 | 1037 | 69% | 2010-03-18 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-11-16 | Won |
| 1006 | 1106 | 36% | 2009-07-30 | Lost |
| 931 | 1138 | 23% | 2009-02-27 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1069 | 44% | 2009-01-01 | Lost |
| 955 | 999 | 44% | 2008-05-14 | Lost |
| 998 | 1047 | 43% | 2007-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1026 | 47% | 2007-04-14 | Won |
| 1133 | 1228 | 37% | 2007-01-05 | Lost |
| 978 | 1018 | 44% | 2005-01-15 | Won |
| 935 | 862 | 60% | 2005-01-14 | Won |
| 1010 | 1098 | 38% | 2004-11-18 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1034 | 52% | 2004-08-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 1098 | 48% | 2004-06-17 | Lost |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2004-04-16 | Won |
| 1106 | 979 | 68% | 2002-09-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1098 | 38% | 2002-06-29 | Lost |
| 1126 | 911 | 78% | 1994-04-10 | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1019.5 vs 1017.7 has a 50.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).