Posts 9-11
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 5 (3 on the archive and 2 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 3
Defender wins (Italian): 1
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Australian): 0
Defender wins (Italian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1068 | 48% | 2023-12-30 | Won |
| 1018 | 984 | 55% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1093 | 984 | 65% | 2023-06-13 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1055.3 vs 1012 has a 56.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).