Posts 9-11
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 8 (4 on the archive and 4 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 3
Defender wins (Italian): 4
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Australian): 0
Defender wins (Italian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 826 | 1139 | 14% | 2025-08-06 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1051 | 58% | 2023-12-30 | Won |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1051 | 56% | 2023-06-13 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1027.3 vs 1055.8 has a 45.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).