Posts 9-11
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 11 (6 on the archive and 6 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 4
Defender wins (Italian): 7
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Australian): 0
Defender wins (Italian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1043 | 44% | 2026-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1120 | 50% | 2026-05-12 | | Won |
| 803 | 1149 | 12% | 2025-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1211 | 1073 | 69% | 2023-12-30 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2023-10-22 | A | Lost |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 2023-06-13 | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1053.3 vs 1065.5 has a 48.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).