First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (9 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 35
Defender wins (Japanese): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1046 | 1040 | 51% | 2026-06-20 | Won |
| 1107 | 951 | 71% | 2025-08-23 | Lost |
| 971 | 1052 | 39% | 2025-08-02 | Lost |
| 1028 | 986 | 56% | 2024-09-20 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1017 | 68% | 2024-03-30 | Tied |
| 970 | 1056 | 38% | 2024-01-24 | Won |
| 970 | 1055 | 38% | 2023-09-08 | Won |
| 1021 | 1021 | 50% | 2023-07-07 | Won |
| 944 | 1089 | 30% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1022.4 vs 1029.7 has a 48.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).