Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (12 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 14
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Won |
| 1041 | 973 | 60% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 1078 | 968 | 65% | 2023-02-07 | Won |
| 1200 | 1191 | 51% | 2022-10-02 | Won |
| 1024 | 1011 | 52% | 2022-09-12 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1011 | 52% | 2022-09-08 | Won |
| 996 | 879 | 66% | 2022-03-27 | Won |
| 879 | 1050 | 27% | 2022-02-15 | Lost |
| 1109 | 913 | 76% | 2022-01-30 | Won |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2022-01-20 | Lost |
| 879 | 973 | 37% | 2021-10-26 | Tied |
| 1153 | 1137 | 52% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1056.4 vs 1012.5 has a 56.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).