Feast Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (32 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 45
Defender wins (German): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1167 | 1195 | 46% | 2026-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2026-03-02 | | Won |
| 976 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-09-29 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 1143 | 67% | 2025-09-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2025-05-16 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2025-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2025-02-09 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 829 | 79% | 2024-08-03 | | Won |
| 1167 | 976 | 75% | 2024-06-21 | | Lost |
| 1057 | 1029 | 54% | 2024-06-21 | | Won |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2023-08-04 | | Won |
| 1057 | 1035 | 53% | 2020-12-13 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2020-11-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2020-11-19 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1127 | 46% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1125 | 46% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1034 | 65% | 2020-05-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 972 | 80% | 2020-05-07 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1034 | 37% | 2020-04-26 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2020-04-07 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1087 | 57% | 2020-04-02 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2020-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2020-02-27 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1017 | 54% | 2020-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-01-18 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2020-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1123 | 37% | 2020-01-17 | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1043.5 vs 1044.8 has a 49.82% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).