Feast Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 100 (33 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 45
Defender wins (German): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 978 | 1283 | 15% | 2026-08-28 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 1195 | 48% | 2026-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2026-03-02 | | Won |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2025-09-29 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1143 | 64% | 2025-09-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2025-05-16 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 861 | 69% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2025-02-09 | | Lost |
| 1054 | 829 | 79% | 2024-08-03 | | Won |
| 1183 | 963 | 78% | 2024-06-21 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 953 | 65% | 2024-06-21 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1127 | 37% | 2023-08-04 | | Won |
| 1057 | 987 | 60% | 2020-12-13 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2020-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2020-11-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2020-11-19 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1091 | 48% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1133 | 42% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1034 | 65% | 2020-05-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1182 | 1006 | 73% | 2020-05-07 | | Lost |
| 967 | 996 | 46% | 2020-04-26 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2020-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1208 | 1000 | 77% | 2020-04-07 | | Won |
| 1189 | 1086 | 64% | 2020-04-02 | | Won |
| 790 | 1141 | 12% | 2020-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2020-02-27 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1001 | 58% | 2020-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-01-18 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2020-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1133 | 34% | 2020-01-17 | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1047.7 vs 1044.7 has a 50.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).