The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (11 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 24
Defender wins (German): 11
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1127 | 1035 | 63% | 2024-08-23 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2023-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 981 | 71% | 2023-02-26 | | Won |
| 1006 | 1283 | 17% | 2021-03-11 | | Lost |
| 967 | 933 | 55% | 2021-02-19 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1183 | 35% | 2021-02-15 | | Won |
| 1050 | 1120 | 40% | 2021-01-02 | | Lost |
| 1049 | 1080 | 46% | 2020-11-29 | | Won |
| 1141 | 944 | 76% | 2020-11-01 | | Won |
| 1228 | 1133 | 63% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2019-05-29 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1108.6 vs 1082.8 has a 53.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).