The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (11 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1045 | 986 | 58% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1263 | 1290 | 46% | 2023-11-26 | Lost |
| 1126 | 991 | 69% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1007 | 1220 | 23% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 910 | 939 | 46% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1167 | 37% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1076 | 1120 | 44% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1077 | 48% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 944 | 76% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1228 | 1076 | 71% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1151 | 1239 | 38% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1098.5 vs 1095.4 has a 50.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).