The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (11 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1045 | 975 | 60% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1283 | 1290 | 49% | 2023-11-26 | Lost |
| 1101 | 978 | 67% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1243 | 20% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 904 | 991 | 38% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1094 | 50% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1108 | 1123 | 48% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1045 | 46% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 963 | 73% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1195 | 1177 | 53% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1157 | 1252 | 37% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1095.7 vs 1102.8 has a 48.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).