The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (11 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 1027 | 41% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1264 | 1291 | 46% | 2023-11-26 | Lost |
| 1110 | 978 | 68% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1221 | 22% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 913 | 980 | 40% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1073 | 53% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1076 | 1120 | 44% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1019 | 48% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 963 | 73% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1228 | 1200 | 54% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1177 | 1232 | 42% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1089.2 vs 1100.4 has a 48.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).