The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (11 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2024-08-23 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2023-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 992 | 68% | 2023-02-26 | | Won |
| 1006 | 1217 | 23% | 2021-03-11 | | Lost |
| 943 | 939 | 51% | 2021-02-19 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1167 | 37% | 2021-02-15 | | Won |
| 1067 | 1120 | 42% | 2021-01-02 | | Lost |
| 1081 | 1098 | 48% | 2020-11-29 | | Won |
| 1141 | 944 | 76% | 2020-11-01 | | Won |
| 1228 | 1125 | 64% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2019-05-29 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1114.5 vs 1070.3 has a 56.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).