A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (14 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 20
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1088 | 39% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1087 | 920 | 72% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1111 | 60% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 996 | 973 | 53% | 2020-06-18 | Lost |
| 1249 | 1002 | 81% | 2019-06-03 | Lost |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2019-01-09 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1224 | 41% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1095 | 1147 | 43% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1140 | 53% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1164 | 970 | 75% | 2018-04-05 | Won |
| 970 | 1164 | 25% | 2018-04-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1081 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1214 | 973 | 80% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1135 | 69% | 2018-01-03 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1094.8 vs 1076.3 has a 52.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).