A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (14 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 20
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 933 | 1088 | 29% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1087 | 920 | 72% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1097 | 61% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 984 | 1067 | 38% | 2020-06-18 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-06-03 | Lost |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2019-01-09 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1224 | 35% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1042 | 1147 | 35% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1140 | 46% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1113 | 970 | 69% | 2018-04-05 | Won |
| 970 | 1113 | 31% | 2018-04-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1081 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1232 | 1067 | 72% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1157 | 63% | 2018-01-03 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1073.6 vs 1086.6 has a 48.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).