Up the Liri Valley
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 108 (34 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 56
Defender wins (German): 52
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1153 | 929 | 78% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1075 | 60% | 2023-08-12 | Lost |
| 1082 | 948 | 68% | 2022-11-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 954 | 94% | 2022-10-30 | Won |
| 904 | 1089 | 26% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1060 | 951 | 65% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 938 | 1132 | 25% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1085 | 49% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 1132 | 904 | 79% | 2022-06-16 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1132 | 32% | 2022-05-25 | Won |
| 1074 | 1088 | 48% | 2022-03-28 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 971 | 768 | 76% | 2022-02-16 | Lost |
| 768 | 1029 | 18% | 2021-02-17 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1073 | 61% | 2020-10-06 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1004 | 78% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 991 | 1029 | 45% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1029 | 971 | 58% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 979 | 890 | 63% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1009 | 991 | 53% | 2019-11-16 | Won |
| 1043 | 1059 | 48% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1148 | 31% | 2018-11-01 | Lost |
| 940 | 1148 | 23% | 2018-10-31 | Lost |
| 918 | 1040 | 33% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1117 | 1133 | 48% | 2018-08-25 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1118 | 47% | 2018-08-03 | Won |
| 1004 | 1169 | 28% | 2018-07-28 | Won |
| 1193 | 938 | 81% | 2018-07-19 | Won |
| 1094 | 1220 | 33% | 2018-04-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1107 | 31% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1188 | 1264 | 39% | 2018-03-18 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1004 | 74% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-01-18 | Won |
| 1313 | 1111 | 76% | 2017-12-06 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1066.9 vs 1059.2 has a 51.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).