Up the Liri Valley
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 122 (40 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 62
Defender wins (German): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1167 | 1040 | 68% | 2026-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1188 | 58% | 2025-11-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2025-11-08 | | Won |
| 1018 | 938 | 61% | 2025-11-08 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2025-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 1242 | 36% | 2025-10-03 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 931 | 76% | 2025-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-04-09 | | Won |
| 1162 | 1033 | 68% | 2023-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1001 | 58% | 2022-11-19 | | Won |
| 1431 | 954 | 94% | 2022-10-30 | | Won |
| 904 | 1183 | 17% | 2022-06-25 | | Lost |
| 933 | 949 | 48% | 2022-06-25 | | Won |
| 986 | 1064 | 39% | 2022-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2022-06-25 | | Won |
| 1064 | 904 | 72% | 2022-06-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2022-05-25 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2022-03-28 | | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-05 | | Lost |
| 963 | 780 | 74% | 2022-02-16 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1031 | 19% | 2021-02-17 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2020-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1018 | 77% | 2020-04-14 | | Won |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2020-04-11 | | Won |
| 993 | 1000 | 49% | 2020-03-29 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-03-21 | | Won |
| 1009 | 977 | 55% | 2019-11-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2019-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1141 | 37% | 2018-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2018-10-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2018-10-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2018-08-25 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-08-03 | | Won |
| 1107 | 1000 | 65% | 2018-07-28 | | Won |
| 1134 | 986 | 70% | 2018-07-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2018-04-15 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1120 | 30% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1170 | 27% | 2018-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2018-01-18 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2017-12-06 | | Lost |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1046.8 vs 1053.7 has a 49.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).