A Simple Solution
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (13 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 21
Defender wins (German): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1034 | 1034 | 50% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1080 | 1057 | 53% | 2020-05-22 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1039 | 62% | 2020-01-18 | Won |
| 1092 | 1132 | 44% | 2019-06-21 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1093 | 62% | 2019-04-11 | Lost |
| 862 | 1060 | 24% | 2019-02-27 | Won |
| 918 | 896 | 53% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1092 | 64% | 2017-12-07 | Lost |
| 925 | 1074 | 30% | 2017-11-19 | Won |
| 1132 | 1092 | 56% | 2017-11-10 | Won |
| 1062 | 1075 | 48% | 2017-02-17 | Won |
| 1211 | 1092 | 66% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1079 | 956 | 67% | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1068.2 vs 1053.2 has a 52.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).