Lost Opportunities
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 249 (21 on the archive and 228 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 133
Defender wins (American): 116
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1140 | 1062 | 61% | 2026-04-30 | | Won |
| 974 | 962 | 52% | 2025-12-05 | | Lost |
| 953 | 1000 | 43% | 2025-11-17 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-06-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2023-01-13 | | Won |
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2021-10-29 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1134 | 45% | 2020-07-06 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-06-24 | | Won |
| 1289 | 728 | 96% | 2020-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1002 | 50% | 2020-05-02 | | Lost |
| 992 | 945 | 57% | 2020-02-23 | | Won |
| 911 | 1108 | 24% | 2019-07-19 | | Lost |
| 1068 | 1055 | 52% | 2018-11-02 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 880 | 68% | 2018-05-12 | | Lost |
| 959 | 974 | 48% | 2018-03-18 | | Won |
| 1076 | 880 | 76% | 2017-08-12 | | Won |
| 904 | 948 | 44% | 2017-05-15 | | Lost |
| 904 | 1000 | 37% | 2017-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1090 | 37% | 2016-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 892 | 65% | 2016-10-11 | | Won |
| 1149 | 987 | 72% | 2011-09-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1041.8 vs 980.5 has a 58.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).