The Commissar's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30 (11 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 6
Defender wins (Polish): 24
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1135 | 1002 | 68% | 2023-10-02 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1019 | 55% | 2021-07-24 | Lost |
| 1231 | 1310 | 39% | 2021-01-20 | Lost |
| 900 | 1036 | 31% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1036 | 65% | 2020-08-09 | Lost |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 958 | 930 | 54% | 2017-03-30 | Lost |
| 1072 | 984 | 62% | 2016-10-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1072 | 44% | 2016-09-08 | Lost |
| 1045 | 930 | 66% | 2016-07-23 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1100 | 37% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1045.6 vs 1036.5 has a 51.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).