A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (17 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1023 | 1001 | 53% | 2025-12-28 | Lost |
| 966 | 1063 | 36% | 2025-11-09 | Lost |
| 1200 | 1051 | 70% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 977 | 970 | 51% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 952 | 68% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1017 | 67% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1114 | 1200 | 38% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 920 | 1023 | 36% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 984 | 989 | 49% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 993 | 1113 | 33% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1200 | 1108 | 63% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1190 | 23% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1232 | 42% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1221 | 939 | 84% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 874 | 1221 | 12% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1019 | 52% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1059.2 vs 1062.9 has a 49.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).