A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (15 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1202 | 1066 | 69% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 977 | 969 | 51% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1013 | 994 | 53% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1030 | 67% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1113 | 1202 | 37% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 920 | 1133 | 23% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 1023 | 979 | 56% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1151 | 30% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1093 | 46% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1170 | 25% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1313 | 24% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1252 | 939 | 86% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 873 | 1252 | 10% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1059 | 46% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1056.3 vs 1088.8 has a 45.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).