The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (22 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 19
Defender wins (Polish): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1062 | 1062 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1051 | 1200 | 30% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 863 | 893 | 46% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1019 | 1139 | 33% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 967 | 1221 | 19% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1113 | 993 | 67% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1113 | 993 | 67% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1012 | 71% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1080 | 1064 | 52% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1108 | 40% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1218 | 893 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 993 | 1038 | 44% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 879 | 1012 | 32% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1232 | 985 | 81% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1131 | 1012 | 66% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1344 | 990 | 88% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 996 | 786 | 77% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1131 | 1012 | 66% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1131 | 1072 | 58% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 1012 | 1131 | 34% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1076.5 vs 1040.1 has a 55.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).