The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49 (22 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 36
Defender wins (Polish): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1021 | 47% | 2024-11-04 | | Won |
| 1030 | 1156 | 33% | 2024-06-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2021-02-28 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 2020-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1243 | 38% | 2020-05-17 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 965 | 72% | 2019-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 965 | 72% | 2019-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2019-01-13 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1085 | 49% | 2018-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1108 | 40% | 2018-09-27 | | Won |
| 1218 | 893 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1038 | 50% | 2017-12-28 | | Won |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2017-07-09 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 987 | 79% | 2017-02-21 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2016-06-27 | | Won |
| 1343 | 990 | 88% | 2016-06-26 | | Won |
| 1021 | 786 | 79% | 2016-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1044 | 1134 | 37% | 2016-06-24 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1134 | 37% | 2016-06-23 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2016-06-05 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1044 | 58% | 2016-06-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2016-03-28 | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1088.6 vs 1027.9 has a 58.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).