The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (21 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 18
Defender wins (Polish): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1108 | 1108 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1060 | 1189 | 32% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 864 | 905 | 44% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1010 | 1119 | 35% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 993 | 1254 | 18% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1154 | 972 | 74% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1154 | 972 | 74% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1125 | 64% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1075 | 1148 | 40% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1109 | 40% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1217 | 892 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 1047 | 1037 | 51% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 879 | 1125 | 20% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1340 | 986 | 88% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1113 | 1125 | 48% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1031 | 794 | 80% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1113 | 1125 | 48% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1113 | 1072 | 56% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 1125 | 1113 | 52% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1086 vs 1068.4 has a 52.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).